Fragmentation, Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Mess

August 25, 2016
 
Ashley Rondeau

Android Nougat is out! Well, sort of. The newest version of Android OS (v 7.0) is starting to roll out to the Nexus line of phones. Is that a lot of devices? No. While Google doesn’t release Nexus sales figures, it’s pretty clear they don’t move nearly as many units as, say, the Samsung Galaxy line, and sales overall have been dropping. So Nougat is “out,” but it’s pretty meaningless for the majority of smartphone users.
What’s worse, handsets older than 2 years won’t see Android Nougat ever, unless you root it and place the updated OS on your old Nexus yourself. So it’s a fraction of a fraction, as evidence by how many Android devices are even running the previous update, 6.0, which is only 15%. And this was released about 10 months ago. This hits me personally since I own a Nexus 5, which will sadly not see Nougat.
Dashboards Android Developers
Source: developer.android.com
The fragmentation on Android mobile devices doesn’t seem like it’ll be resolved any time soon. But that’s just the new standard for everything in our lives, so why should Android be any different?

Everything is Fragmented

Game-Boy-FL
Growing up, everyone had a Game Boy, arguably the first “mobile device” that captured our attention and imagination like smartphones do today. And when I say “everyone,” that of course doesn’t mean literally everyone, it just felt that way. In reality, the original and color Game Boy sold about 118 million units over its lifetime. Compare that to the total number of iPhones sold which is nearing a billion units. But even with those massive numbers, it sure doesn’t feel like everyone has an iPhone, and at 15% marketshare, they clearly don’t. The smartphone market as a whole is as fragmented as Android.
This fragmentation is because there are not only more people in the world, but more options in general. We’re seeing the market effects of choice everywhere, from the low ratings of the Olympics and traditional television, to movies, to music, to video games. Billions of dollars are still being spent in all these industries, but the audiences are becoming ever more fragmented and servicing niches is becoming a complicated headache for every business trying to eek a profit. And it’s not just media.
Fragmentation is everywhere. Shopping for goods. Grocery stores. Healthcare. Doritos flavors. People, especially in the US, live a fragmented life where the things that one person uses and consumes look pretty different from the things the next-door neighbor uses and consumes.
Here’s a quick litmus test for the tech industry to see how fragmented our experiences are: can you name any recent (as in the past 8-10 years) brands that have become “genericized” the way iPod, Google, Photoshop, and Skype have? There doesn’t seem to be many (a few contenders: Uber, Podcast, Venmo? Maybe?) and this is because we no longer have many shared experiences due to the options at our disposal.
This is the new normal. Everyone’s an island. And that’s ok.

Embracing Fragmentation

fragmented-717138_640Today’s social networks are a great illustration of how businesses can help us embrace fragmentation. On the surface, they all look and behave the same way. Your Facebook looks and acts a lot like my Facebook. But the content is completely fragmented; your Facebook feed’s content is nothing like mine. Your Twitter content is totally different, as is your LinkedIn and Instagram. The framework is identical, the stuff we consume on it isn’t. Everyone has a unique experience, even though the UX is the same. Social networks are a great balance of uniformity and individuality. It’s fragmentation with the illusion of uniformity.
And ultimately, that’s what audiences want. They want to be with the crowd, but unique in the crowd. If your business can muster that feeling, the feeling of safety in numbers concurrent with feeling individualistic and special, you’re going to do well with the masses.
Android hits those feelings for me. The Android community still feels small; the community of Nexus owners, smaller still. But the platform itself has the vast market share of mobile devices despite the fragmentation, and the differences between a 6.0 to 7.0 are pretty small no matter how much the community loves to hype them up. It’s too bad my current phone won’t get Nougat, but again, only 15% of Android phones even have Marshmallow. I still feel special, in the crowd.
Bottle that feeling, and your business will win today’s market.
What do you think about fragmentation in today’s world?
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So, if you don’t know where to get started with a blueprint for your app, Rocket Farm Studios can take the pressure off.

The Future of Niantic: Life After Pokémon Go

August 17, 2016
 
Ashley Rondeau

PokĂ©mon Go is a mega-hit. No, it’s a mega-mega-mega hit. It’s estimated that the mobile game is making up to $10 million a day, and total revenue could hit $1 billion before the year is over. Not bad for a game that just launched a month ago.
But nothing lasts forever. Check out this chart from Survey Monkey, via TechTimes.com:
Pokemon Go DAU
The all-important Daily Active Users (DAU) metric seems to have already peaked and is on the decline. Perhaps this is to be expected since the game was such a phenomenon right out the gate but historically, hit games “including previous record-setting hit games Draw Something and Candy Crush Saga, experience a slow start.”
So what does the future hold for the creator of the game, Niantic? Well, we’ve seen hits before and usually there seems to be three paths these companies take after a blockbuster. Let’s examine each one.

Adapt: Rovio Entertainment

Angry Birds was a monster hit for the Finnish developer of mobile games, formerly known as Rovio Mobile. Remember a few years ago, everyone and their mother was busy flinging birds at fat green pigs?
Angry Birds
Yeah. You remember.
Angry Birds got a billion downloads and made hundreds of millions for Rovio, but though its sequel games did well, they never achieved the same level of notoriety as the original. So what did they do?
They adapted. They were wise enough to know that they had more than just a game on their hands. They had hot intellectual property in these birds that could expand to other media. So Rovio Mobile turned into Rovio Entertainment and soon the birds were everywhere with merchandise, console video games, a cartoon series, and the feature movie that came out this year. Of these, the movie was the most successful venture (grossing nearly $350 million worldwide on an estimated budget of $73 million) and saved the Rovio employees working on it from a recent round of layoffs.
Rovio’s hit game led to adapting the company to an animation powerhouse. Who would have thought?

Acquired: King Digital Entertainment

In 2011, Candy Crush Saga took over everyone’s life. By mid-2013, it had 6.7 million active users and was earning revenues of $633,000 a day. Developer King.com had a bonafide mega-hit on their hands.
Candy Crush Saga
Your thumbs are trembling right now due to muscle memory.
Candy Crush Saga was a huge craze, and it launched sequels that involved crushing sodas and jellies, and it launched a lot of other sagas as well. A whole lot, including Bubbles, Pets, Diamonds, Farms, you name it. But King.com couldn’t replicate the same success. So what did they do?
They got acquired. In February of this year, Activision Blizzard bought King Digital Entertainment for $5.9 billion to become the “largest game network in the world.” This was probably the best thing to happen to King, especially since their brand was in decline and they hadn’t produced another hit game. While Activision Blizzard probably didn’t overpay for King Entertainment, the jury’s out on just how business-savvy this acquisition was.
But no matter what, an acquisition at nearly $6 billion? Not a bad way to go.

Atrophy: Zynga

Farmville, Cityville, Words With Friends; Zynga’s games were on everyone’s thumbs before mobile was even really mobile. In 4 years since its inception, Zynga has pulled in a billion dollars and ushered in a new casual gaming paradigm that has shaped the industry since.
wordswithfriends
Remember that one English major friend who this game made you hate?
Zynga paved the way for mobile gaming and reaped the benefit for years. They codified ideas like spending real money on more energy, to speed up time, and to unlock virtual items. High off all this success, Zynga went public and listed itself on the NASDAQ in 2011. Unfortunately, share value fell as they released lesser and lesser hits. So what did they do?
They atrophied. Shares as of this writing is at $2.68, having fallen from the original $10 value back in 2011. Today, analysts are a bit bullish on the company since they “only” posted a net loss of $4.4 million this quarter compared to losses of over $26 million in each of the previous quarters.
Unable to find a new game to hit with its changing audience, Zynga has become just a shell of the juggernaut it used to be in the gaming industry.

So, then Niantic?

So once PokĂ©mon Go inevitably begins to peter out, what’s going to happen with Niantic? Well our money’s on acquisition. After all, they can’t really expand to other media since Nintendo and the PokĂ©mon Company own the character rights. Another hit game? Unlikely. See the previous 3 companies that have tried. Atrophying is possible, but the associated game brand is so strong that it would be highly unlikely for the company to just evaporate, though we’ll probably see a bit of that before an acquisition.
But we’re app developers first, and business speculators second! Let us know what you think will happen to Niantic post-PokĂ©mon.
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So, if you don’t know where to get started with a blueprint for your app, Rocket Farm Studios can take the pressure off.

Instagram Will Kill Snapchat (Because It’s Killed Before)

August 8, 2016
 
Ashley Rondeau

Remember Flip Video cameras? They were incredibly popular right up until smartphone camera quality got to the point where it was “good enough” for the majority of the population. Then it made no sense to carry an additional video recording device.
Instagram Snapchat
 
The new brouhaha about Instagram launching copycat Snapchat features is going to be a lot like that: people are only going to want to carry one, in this case, video app. And at the end of the day, Instagram’s going to win because it’s won over and over again. Let’s look at some previous victories:

Instagram vs Camera Apps

Just a few years ago, photo apps with various filters and stickers and editing tools were ubiquitous in the app stores. Everyone had their favorite, be it Paper Camera or Pixlr or Camera+ or Camera Awesome or Camera 360 or LINE Camera or what have you.
Instagram Camera
Source: theverge.com
Now, how many camera apps are in the iTunes 100 as of today? Primsa at #25 (a filter app), Collageable at #69 (a collage app), and Flipagram at #91 (mostly a video app). No competitive photo app hits the top 100 anymore because Instagram has won over that market. Heck, not just photo apps but filter apps, collage apps, video apps, etc. And without 3rd party access to Instagram’s API, which is a great strategic move, it’s too hard to compete. At best, these other apps are niche products that cater to a small segment of the overall user base.

Instagram vs Facebook

If you can’t beat ’em, buy ’em. That’s what Facebook did when their attempts to beat Instagram (and Snapchat) with Camera and Poke failed to gain any traction. Zuckerberg was ultimately right to make the $1 billion investment back when Instagram had a “paltry” 30 million users. Today, it has about 500 million monthly active users, which is especially satisfying to Facebook since many users threatened to leave once Instagram was bought by the soulless corporation.
So, in a way, Instagram (and Facebook) won the battle against the fickle users as well.

Instagram vs Flickr

Really, Yahoo killed Flickr. It was mismanaged because it failed to innovate and listen to its own community. But it might have been salvaged if there wasn’t an app that did everything Flickr failed to do, which was/is Instagram.
Only a small percentage of users care about photo quality. Moreover, the majority cares about ease of use and instant gratification. Instagram offered not just the archive for your online photos, but the community that would ooh and ahh over them in real time.

Instagram vs Vine

how-instagram-killed-vine-for-marketers
Source: socialbakers.com
Did you know? Vine is quietly dying. More than half of Vine’s top accounts have stopped posting on that platform and are headed to Facebook, Snapchat, and increasingly Instagram. When 15 second (and now 60 second) videos arrived on Instagram, Vine’s days were numbered. Especially since Instagram is better for marketers, and even Vine stars need hoverboard money, and the crowd goes where their favorite online personalities go, we’re seeing a mass exodus from one platform to another.
Snapchat Monetization
Source: visualcapitalist.com
And this is very telling for what will happen with Snapchat. Likewise with Vine, Instagram just added Snapchat’s entire functionality as a feature to its core programming. Likewise with Vine, Snapchat has a monetization problem. And likewise with Vine, Snapchat hasn’t bred any loyalty with its users. That’s sort of the point of semi-private, ephemeral stories: they don’t stick around and neither does the user. Meanwhile, Instagram already has a base of loyal users who were here before this new feature.

Apps and Innovation

There’s a chance that Snapchat will be able to innovate their way out of this, but funny enough, their latest new feature is just to copy Instagram. Pictures and videos that stick around? What a novel idea! And this was launched before Instagram launched their copycat features.
So what can we learn from all this? One, don’t get into a land war with Instagram. But two, great ideas will eventually get copied so don’t stop innovating. Being first to market is a huge advantage, but don’t squander it by resting on your laurels.
Or at least lawyer up and sue for intellectual property infringement.
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So, if you don’t know where to get started with a blueprint for your app, Rocket Farm Studios can take the pressure off.

7 Apps You Need to Survive the 2016 Olympics in Rio

August 2, 2016
 
Ashley Rondeau

The 2016 Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro (the Games of the XXXI Olympiad, if you’re nasty) are set to open this Friday. Some of you brave souls may be traveling to Brazil to partake in the spectacle that a piece in The New York Times has dubbed a “catastrophe.” Fear not! Since this is 2016, you have a mobile device on your person and it will save your life*. Trust us, we’ve rounded up the 7 mobile apps you’ll definitely need to survive the 2016 Olympics.

1. Speak the Language!

transferwiseAs soon as you land in Brazil, you’ll need an app to help you communicate using the local language. Sure, 99% of the population speaks Portuguese, but let’s face it: you’re an American tourist so the only thing you’ll be speaking is louder English accompanied by a series of wild gesticulating. Nay, the language you’ll want to speak is Real easy, as in the Brazilian Real, which as of this writing is 3 to 1 US dollar. And since Brazil’s economy is “going through one of the longest and deepest economic contractions in recorded history,” according to Goldman Sachs, money talks big time.
TransferWise Money Transfer is the perfect app to help you explore the city and/or pay off any ransom demands (which happened to a New Zealand jiu-jitsu fighter on June 24th). This is a good app to put on your family’s smartphones as well; preferably those who care about your well-being.

2. Befriend the Locals!

When in Rio, you’ll want to take in the local culture and enjoy the rich history of a proud people. One great way to enter the good graces of the locals is to help them stay safe from a corrupt and racist police force that killed 644 people in 2015.
Nos por NosSimply download the Nos por Nos app (translation: Us by Us) and record any police violence you will definitely come across. A tourist guide explains this app’s neat features thusly:

It’s a self-defense tool for people to report violence, assaults and killings, particularly by the police. They can send videos, texts, record witness statements and post pictures, and these will be forwarded to human right bodies like Amnesty International, government public security organizations and the media that can take official action.”

The locals will thank you! The police, not so much!

3. Repel Zika-carrying Mosquitoes!

Break ZikaAre you pregnant? Do you ever want to be? Keep the Zika mosquitoes at bay with a free “sonic repeller” app! Haha, just kidding! No high-frequency emitting app has ever been proven to work, so don’t even bother. Try actual bug repellent and maybe these stylish Zika-proof suits the South Koreans will be sporting.
But don’t just whine about the problem of a potential plague on humanity that is currently spreading state-side, be part of the solution! The Break Zika app is great to have on your phone if you have any spare time between watching the actual fun events (sorry Golf and Trampoline). Take pictures of standing pools of water! Take a symptoms test! Report your positive-for-Zika status and become a statistic!
Don’t worry though, the latest reports say it’s only a tiny risk. But then again, Zika is known to spread through sexual activities and that’s what everyone goes to Rio and the Olympics for so…

4. Drink Safe Water!

BarChickWell, we can’t fool you again: there’s no app that can test water quality, so don’t bother running the tap over your smartphone. Instead, pick up a water testing kit or thirty, and try to only drink Coca-Cola, the official soft drink of the Olympics since 1928.
Or better yet, find the closest bar via BarChick and stay “hydrated” with local beer. Sure you can help out the country by installing something like mWater Surveyor to map out clean water sources, but you’re already doing your part with the Zika thing! You deserve a break. And a beer.

5. See the Olympics!

Sure, yes, get the official Rio 2016 Olympics app. Why not? You can follow the torch and stuff.

6. Get More Attractive!

I Dance SambaThe odds of you hooking up with an Olympian is pretty low, unless you settle for the Bronze-winners. Improve your odds of winning the affection of a beautiful local with the power of dance! Samba, that is, which is the king of the dance-types in Brazil.
I Dance Samba will teach you, intellectually, everything you need to know to wow that local in that nightclub you’re awkwardly standing in. You couldn’t learn a lick of Portuguese, but we’re sure you can learn the steps to get your Samba-ing like a pro by watching video clips and reading text descriptions of how to sway your hips correctly!

7. Don’t Poop Yourself!

Toilet FinderYou’re going to get diarrhea. You know it. We know it. The athletes know it. Maybe you can use an app like the CDC’s Can I Eat This? app to try and avoid it, but it’ll get you before long. It’s as sure as Russia’s doping allegations.
So download Toilet Finder now, before you travel, and get proficient at using it quickly with trembling hands. It just might be the difference between having an amazing Brazilian trip, and never being able to set foot in South America again.
Go for the gold!
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*It probably won’t.

So, if you don’t know where to get started with a blueprint for your app, Rocket Farm Studios can take the pressure off.